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2024 has become the past, the 2024 agricultural machinery market has come to an end, and the farm machinery market is less than expected, so at the beginning of the year the industry is full of expectations, a big disappointment. The overall market performance for the “two consecutive falls”, segmented the market hot and cold unevenly, from the future development trend, the industry outlook is still worth looking forward to.
Agricultural machinery market status quo
1. The overall market declined again, the market segments hot and cold unevenly
In 2024, China's agricultural machinery subsidized consumption scale, on the basis of 2023 fell again. Current data show that in 2024 subsidized public sales of all types of agricultural machinery 2.777 million sets, are expected to achieve subsidized consumption of agricultural machinery of 66.578 billion yuan. Public sales were 9.31% lower than in 2023, and sales were 19.26% lower; sales were 16.99% lower than in 2022, and sales were 45.61% lower.
Although the overall market of agricultural machinery “two consecutive declines” situation has been finalized, the market performance of various segments is very different, hot and cold uneven. In 2024, some traditional markets will have different degrees of decline. Among them, the subsidized sales of corn harvesters declined by 22%, rice harvesting declined by 13%, baler declined by 46%, grain dryer declined by 30%, and green fodder harvesters declined by 58%.
In contrast, some other segments of the market showed growth. Among them, subsidized sales of crawler tractors increased by 13% year-on-year, wheat harvesting was up slightly by 3%, rice transplanters were up 11% year-on-year, rotary tillers were up 8%, microtillers were up 20% year-on-year, deep-pine combines were up 16%, peanut harvesters soared by 60%, root and tuber harvesters (garlic, herb diggers, etc.) and beet harvesters were both up more than 80%, and sugarcane harvesters' year-on-year increase was more than 230%. The subsidized consumption of wheeled tractors, although the current data shows a slight decline, with the further public announcement of subsidized consumption data, the market situation in 2024 is expected to catch up with that of 2023.
2. Demand for structural adjustment, the market “four” features highlighted
In recent years, the agricultural machinery market, large-scale, high-end, intelligent, green features highlighted year by year. Take grain harvesters as an example, wheeled grain combine harvesters have entered the 10kg/s era comprehensively, and in 2024, 10kg/s and above feeding capacity models accounted for 51%, and crawler-type full-feed grain combine harvesters entered the 8 kg/s era. Rice transplanters have switched from hand-held walk-behind type to high-speed ride-on type era, and the proportion of high-speed ride-on type rice transplanters will reach 58% in 2024. In the field of wheeled tractors, the sales of tractors with 200 hp and above accounted for 10%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous year; high-end tractors represented by power shift and CVT entered the application stage, and the sales of power shift, power shift, and CVT tractors, exceeded 3,800 units in 2024, an increase of more than 300 units compared with 2023.
Beidou assisted driving technology, the application scene is more mature. The subsidized sales of the Beidou-assisted driving system exceeded 70,000 sets for three consecutive years, and the tractors, harvesters, and rice transplanters equipped with Beidou-assisted driving technology have been widely recognized by users.
New energy agricultural machinery is accelerating into the development of the “wind mouth” period, the original power in the agricultural machinery released during the fall of 260 horsepower pure electric tractor, triggering widespread concern in the industry.
In addition, in addition to large-scale features, in the national “small” agricultural equipment research and development, manufacturing, and application of policy guidelines, small agricultural machinery has shown significant development momentum and small agricultural machinery market performance. Adapted to the hilly and mountainous areas, greenhouses, and other operating scenarios of the micro-tiller, small rotary tiller, and another upward trend, micro-tiller subsidized sales increased by 20%, and rotary tiller increased by 8%. Under the unfavorable situation that the overall decline of full-feeding crawler grain harvesters is nearly 13%, the sales of small harvesters with 2kg/s and below still exceeded 3,400 units in 2024, and the year-on-year decline was controlled at 6%, which is relatively stable.
3. Industry reshuffle accelerates, brand concentration increases
Product imitation and homogenization competition have been the challenges and problems faced by the agricultural machinery market. Product homogenization, to intensify the market competition is the intrinsic cause of fierce. The market decline, on the other hand, is the main external force to promote the white-hot market competition and accelerated reshuffling. In 2024 agricultural machinery market declined again, so the market competition is even more intense, and the degree of concentration is further increased.
Overall, the dealers of the top ten agricultural machinery producers invoiced more than $34 billion in 2024, accounting for 51.12% of the overall subsidized agricultural machinery consumption market share, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from 2023. The further increase in brand concentration was characterized by more prominent performance in some traditional bulk agricultural machinery sectors.
Wheeled tractors, grain harvesting machinery, planting machinery, and other traditional agricultural machinery segments including, has long entered the stock renewal stage, the market competition presents with incremental market with very different characteristics. The first thing is that the industry is no longer a roll price, from price competition to value competition, which really opened the comprehensive strength of the competition between enterprises. For example, is still in the incremental market of the Beidou assisted driving system, the price has been adjusted downward over the past few years, the main enterprises in the field of grain dryers are also in the price of the competition; but the competition in the field of tractor has shown the characteristics of the competition for technological strength, a number of companies are beginning to seek to build intelligent products to enhance market share, grain harvester enterprises to upgrade the amount of competition between the feed is more and more intense.
This industry competition is manifested in the data, which is a result of market concentration. From the point of view of the ecological environment of enterprise development, the phenomenon of “cool under the tree” rarely occurs, mostly “under the tree” the cruel reality of grass does not grow. Industry giants to grab market share, the first to be squeezed is the small and medium-sized market space. Wheeled tractor industry, for example, Weichai Leivo to China Yituo launched the championship of the fight, and in 2023 successfully asked, but from the current data, in 2024, China Yituo once again reclaimed the champion position. Warde Agricultural Machinery tried its best to enter the top three, and finally caught up with Dongfeng Agricultural Machinery in 2024, winning the third place result for the first time. Taishan Guotai and Weifang Huaxia all tried to seize the fifth position of Changfa Agricultural Machinery, and of course, the fifth position was indeed lost for a while. In the fierce competition of the industry head enterprises, the market share is constantly to the head enterprises to concentrate. In 2022, the top five brands of tractor sales concentration of 50.85%, 2023 increased to 58.09%, in 2024, the current top five concentration was 59.76%, three years the brand concentration increased by nearly 9 percentage points.
Other industries also have similar performance, corn harvester field, Weichai Leivo, Hebei Yinghu stable top two, and the share of the obvious climb. In the field of wheat harvesting, Weichai Leivo stands alone, while in the field of rice harvesting, the market share of one enterprise, Warde Agricultural Machinery, exceeds 50%. Rice transplanter field, 2024, the top three brands together accounted for 45.3%, and the top three brands together accounted for an increase of nearly 5 percentage points in three years.
4. Overseas influence expanded, agricultural machinery exports set off another boom
In 2024, China's agricultural machinery exports hit a new high, exports from January to November exceeded 50.9 billion yuan, 8.4% higher than last year's annual exports. The export place has covered more than 200 countries and regions around the world. Agricultural machinery and machinery exports became an important force in the development of the agricultural machinery industry.
Agricultural machinery exports hit a new high, as the result of a combination of factors, from the national macro level, which is the continuation of the long-term positive trend; from the industry at the meso-level, the domestic market demand for agricultural machinery is still hovering in the trough, forcing enterprises to “go out and seek development”. At present, a lot of subdivided bulk agricultural machinery product areas, there is a trend of increasing brand concentration, in the industry under the strong attack of the giant enterprises, many enterprises in the domestic market share was significantly squeezed, and began to actively seek development in overseas markets.
